European Parliament elections: a few clear leaders and then a mad scramble for seats

Campaigns matter. And with an unprecedented number of candidates running in the three European Parliament constituencies, many of whom are, today’s poll suggests, within a few points of each other, the campaigns currently unfolding across the country will matter more than ever. With literally dozens of candidates vying to nudge ahead of each other, relatively small movements in support could have an outsized impact. Transfers will be, in many cases, decisive. It’s not just game on. It’s more, let the mad scramble commence, and devil take the hindmost.

In Dublin, Barry Andrews of Fianna Fáil (18 per cent) and Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin (15 per cent) are both in a strong position to take seats. It’s a four-seater, so the quota is 20 per cent. If these numbers or anything like them are reproduced on election day, Andrews will be re-elected and Boylan will retake the seat she lost in 2019.

Although Sinn Féin has seen its support tumble in the general election polls – suffering a five-point drop in the current poll as reported on Thursday – the party must still be strong enough to take at least a seat in each of the European constituencies. In Dublin, that will be Boylan, the poll suggests; the second Sinn Féin candidate Daithí Doolan (3 per cent) is functioning as a “sweeper” on the basis of these numbers.

It gets a lot tighter after that. Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty is on 12 per cent and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin of Labour is on 10 per cent. But there is little between them and Ciaran Cuffe of the Greens, on 8 per cent, and the second-preference polls suggest that Cuffe will retain much of the Greens’ traditional transfer-friendliness (though Doherty also rates highly on this). Meanwhile, just behind is Independents 4 Change MEP Clare Daly and Bríd Smith of Solidarity-People Before Profit, both on 6 per cent. If the combined radical left vote can coalesce around one candidate – likely Daly, though it’s a weak showing by her today – she could well have enough to stay in the race until the latter stages.

Niall Boylan of Independent Ireland (5 per cent) could attract transfers from the scattering of right-wing/far-right/anti-migrant candidates, but he needs a lot of them. Sinéad Gibney of the Social Democrats (5 per cent) looks unlikely at this stage to be a player in the later counts, but her transfers could be important for Ó Ríordáin or Cuffe.

In Midlands-North-West, things are more bunched at the top. Eight candidates are registering between 6 and 11 per cent – Independent and sitting MEP Luke “Ming” Flanagan (11 per cent); Barry Cowen (10 per cent) and Lisa Chambers (9 per cent) of Fianna Fáil; Fine Gael’s incumbent Maria Walsh (10 per cent); Nina Carberry (9 per cent); Michelle Gildernew (8 per cent); current MEP Chris MacManus (6 per cent) of Sinn Féin; and Ciaran Mullooly of Independent Ireland (7 per cent).

There are three candidates on 4 per cent – Niall Blaney of Fianna Fáil, Independent Peter Casey and Peadar Tóibín, the Aontú leader. After that, there are 16 candidates on 3 per cent or less. Several registered support of less than 1 per cent; eight were on 1 per cent. It’s going to be a crowded and probably noisy campaign.

What can we say about it at this stage? It is possible than any of the big three parties could win two seats. But is it likely? Probably not. And what that means is that the biggest rivals for the Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin candidates are their running mates from the same party. That will be an unavoidable dynamic in the weeks ahead.

As a five-seater, the quota is just shy of 17 per cent of the valid poll. Ming Flanagan will need transfers; there are left wing transfers to be had but Flanagan is not a conventional left-wing candidate and doesn’t fare especially well on the second-preference measure. He’s probably still odds-on for a seat, though. Plus one Fine Gaeler, plus one Fianna Fáiler, plus one Sinn Féiner – and then? A second for one of the parties? Maybe, but not Sinn Féin on these numbers. Ciaran Mullooly can’t be discounted but he has work to do. A conventional progressive left seat – Labour, Social Democrats or Greens – looks unlikely. What about Peter Casey, the independent former presidential candidate? On 4 per cent, he needs a surge, and quick.

In Ireland South, the picture is very different. There are two standout leaders, both sitting MEPs – Seán Kelly of Fine Gael on 23 per cent, and Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil on 18 per cent. Both seem sure of re-election on today’s figures. Kathleen Funchion of Sinn Féin (11 per cent) should also take a seat, though she will need the transfers of party colleague Paul Gavan, who is on 6 per cent.

After that, the scramble begins. The last two seats are likely to go to – on the basis of these figures – to two of the following: Niamh Hourigan of Labour (5 per cent); Derek Blighe of the far-right Ireland First party (4 per cent); independent TD Michael McNamara (4 per cent); John Mullins of Fine Gael (remember he will have a Seán Kelly surplus as well as his 4 per cent); and the two sitting MEPs Mick Wallace and Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens, both on 3 per cent today.

Can a candidate on 3 per cent win a seat? Nope. But a candidate on 3 per cent can push that up through vigorous and effective campaigning towards double figures by polling day. That’s where the game is at for the great majority of the 73 candidates in these elections. Their chances vary, but none of them are great. The real contenders are those near double figures. It’s quite the dogfight; rather it’s many dogfights.

Finally, one large word of caution from the pollsters. These numbers are drawn from essentially three different constituency polls which are amalgamated for the national polling questions. For the Euros, though, they are separate. With a sample of 500 per constituency, the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 4.4 per cent.

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